Exit prices and liquidity in tech buyouts

Research note · Tech buyout

Exit prices and liquidity in European tech buyouts, 2021-2026

This note tracks exit prices for European tech companies under LBO and sets them against fund valuations. Three findings. The exit multiple, which fell as much as 28% below the entry multiple at end-2024, is only 6% below it by mid-2026, moving in step with monetary policy. Holdings acquired during the Covid period are reaching maturity without being sold: in our sample, 39 out of 45 are still in portfolio. A 15-25% gap persists between fund valuations and the prices buyers offer, on holdings that are not put up for sale.

Exit / entry gap

−6%

In mid-2026, tech companies under LBO sell 6% below their entry multiple, versus 28% below at end-2024.

H2 21

H1 22

H2 22

H1 23

H2 23

H1 24

H2 24

H1 25

H2 25

H1 26

ScaleX Index research note, November 2026. It combines two sources. The ScaleX Index: transactions in European tech companies with a known EBITDA multiple, from 2020 to H1 2026, i.e. 709 LBO entries and 213 sales of fund-owned companies (market prices, sections 1 to 3). Reports from European buyout funds to their investors (sections 3 to 5).

13%

Median IRR on exits after more than five years of holding, versus 26-29% before: the zone the 2021 vintage is now entering.

15-25%

Buyers offer 15 to 25% less than the value funds carry (NAV) for holdings still in portfolio.

Only 7% of the buyout holdings in our sample were sold in 2024, versus 21% in 2020.

1. Exit multiples and policy rates

The price at which a tech company under LBO is sold has followed monetary policy, with a lag. The median exit multiple peaked at 13.6x in early 2022, when the ECB deposit rate was still at −0.5%. It slid to 11.6-12x as rates rose to 4%, then dropped in 2024 to reach 9.2x at year-end. The ECB began cutting in June 2024; the exit multiple recovered to 10.5x in mid-2025 and 10.8x in mid-2026, without returning to its 2021 level. Entry prices held up better: across all transactions, the median stays close to 12x over the whole period. It is the gap between the two that widened (section 2, chart 2).

Chart 1 · EV/EBITDA exit multiple of tech companies under LBO and ECB rate

Source: ScaleX Index, European transactions. Median of sales of fund-owned companies over a rolling 18 months, smoothed over 6 months, 32 to 75 sales per point; ECB deposit rate (FRED).

This price only covers companies that were actually sold. The index no longer shows a discount because the holdings that would require one are not put up for sale. Our fund sample confirms it: the share of buyout holdings sold during the year fell from about 21% in 2020 to 7% in 2024.

2. Entry multiple and exit multiple

In 2021, a company under LBO sold 15 to 20% above the multiple paid at entry. The two curves cross in early 2023, after the ECB raised rates from −0.5% to 4% in fourteen months. The gap stays contained (−6 to −7%) until mid-2024, then the exit price drops: 28% below entry at end-2024, 20% in mid-2025. With the ECB back at 2%, the gap narrows: −18% at end-2025, −6% in mid-2026, at 10.8x for an entry at 11.6x. The convergence comes as much from the recovery in exits, from 9.2x to 10.8x, as from the fall in the entry multiple, from 13.1x to 11.6x.

Chart 2 · EV/EBITDA multiple at LBO entry and at exit, gap at each half-year

Source: ScaleX Index. Medians over a rolling 18 months smoothed over 6 months; entry = LBOs (78 to 261 deals per point), exit = sales of fund-owned companies (32 to 75); gap between the two curves at each half-year end.

What is at stake for the 2021 vintage

A tech LBO completed in 2021 was paid a median 11.3x EBITDA (chart 2, end-2021). Sold today, it would fetch around 10.8x: the multiple no longer creates value, it takes a little away, and performance depends entirely on EBITDA growth (section 5). These holdings are past the 45-month median holding period and approaching five years, the point beyond which the median IRR on exits in our sample drops from 26-29% to 13%. Waiting for a better multiple lengthens the holding period and dilutes the IRR; in our sample, none of the 15 holdings from the 2021 vintage with a known multiple has been sold yet.

3. Prices by size and valuation of holdings

For holdings acquired in 2021-2022 and still in portfolio, the funds in our sample carry a median valuation of 9.5x EBITDA, 16% below the price paid for companies in the same sector and of the same size. On the small number of sales to other funds in the sample, the price paid is in the same range, about 14% below comparables. On the secondary market, a buyout fund stake trades at around 91% of NAV.

Table 1 · EV / EBITDA multiple at entry and at exit, by size

Size (enterprise value)	H1-21	H1-23	H1-25	H1-26
Small · below €100M
LBO entry	10.0x	10.5x	11.3x	10.4x
Exit (sale by a fund)	11.0x	6.9x	8.6x	9.4x
Exit / entry gap	+10%	−34%	−24%	−10%
Mid and large · €100M and above
LBO entry	13.7x	13.9x	14.3x	13.9x
Exit (sale by a fund)	15.9x	13.7x	11.9x	11.2x
Exit / entry gap	+16%	−1%	−16%	−19%

ScaleX Index, European tech companies, same method as charts 1 and 2: median over a rolling 18 months to end-June, smoothed over 6 months. Exits rest on a smaller sample than entries.

Covid vintages are reaching maturity without being soldThe median holding period before a sale is 45 months in our sample: LBOs from 2020 to 2022 should exit in 2024-2026. Of 45 holdings from these vintages, 39 are still in portfolio. The 6 that were sold had been bought at 7.9x EBITDA and sold at 10.7x; those remaining were paid 10.0x and are valued at 9.5x.

No multiple expansion2021-2022 LBOs were paid 11.1 to 11.9x EBITDA (chart 2). The exit market pays 10.8x today: value can now only come from EBITDA growth.

Size discount already priced inSmaller companies are bought below the market (10.4x below €100m of enterprise value, versus 13.9x above, table 1), but this discount is recovered at exit and is already reflected in the NAVs of the 2021-2022 vintages.

Selection bias in exitsExits take place at 1.22x the last NAV, but only the best holdings sell: 18% a year for the highest-scored, 5% for median holdings.

4. Acquirer profile and prices

Buyout liquidity relies first on other funds, the most price-sensitive buyers. Medians of successful exits of SMEs and mid-sized companies:

Table 2 · Successful exits by acquirer type · medians

Acquirer	Fund multiple	Median IRR	Holding period	Price vs NAV
Private equity funds	2.0x	20%	45 months	1.27x
Corporates	2.0x	27%	51 months	1.24x
Management, OBO, existing shareholder	2.3x	20%	43 months	1.22x
Refinancing (mezzanine)	1.4x	17%	22 months	1.16x

Excluding unidentified acquirers and large co-investments.

−14%

Funds pay the market price, no moreTheir median purchase multiple is below that of comparable transactions: when secondary LBOs slow, the first buyer steps back.

4.3x

Corporates pay the premiumsMoney multiple on the equity holdings in SMEs they buy, with a purchase multiple above the index.

2.4x

Foreign buyers pay moreIRR of 35% and a price of 1.72x NAV, versus 1.9x, 19% and 1.22x for French acquirers.

5. EBITDA growth, holding period and IRR

EBITDA growth is by far the variable most closely linked to deal performance. Across 77 decomposed deals, value creation comes from EBITDA (+0.88x entry equity), far more than from the multiple (+0.10x). Debt often increased (−0.20x) to fund acquisitions or dividends.

Chart 3 · Median deal IRR by annual EBITDA growth since entry

Zero or negative

0 to 5%

5 to 15%

Above 15%

Annual EBITDA growth since the fund’s entry

Source: ScaleX sample, 75 equity deals (exits and holdings in portfolio). Annualised fund IRR on the holding.

Time also works against the seller: the median IRR on exits drops from 26-29% before 5 years of holding to 13% beyond. For a stagnating holding, waiting two years to avoid a 20% discount often means paying it anyway, with a diluted IRR on top.

6. Implications for portfolio management

HoldGrowing holdingsEBITDA up more than 5% a year, leverage under control: these are the holdings buyers pay above NAV for.

Sell earlyStagnating holdingsTime will not shrink the discount. Better to accept it today than to pay it later with a diluted IRR.

Price to marketHoldings valued above the indexValued above their sector, they are the most exposed: a buyer will at best pay the market price.

This requires reconciling NAVs with observable market references (multiples by sector and size, prices paid by acquirer type) rather than with entry multiples, and pricing quickly from the same data. On that condition, direct sales and continuation vehicles will become a routine portfolio management tool.

Methodology

ScaleX IndexEuropean transactions 2020 - H1 2026; LBOs, M&A, growth and secondaries with positive EBITDA and a multiple between 2x and 40x (1,833 deals); reference for a company = median of the previous 18 months, same sector, same EV bracket (all sectors, as the sample funds are not tech specialists); all series and tables on a rolling 18 months, series smoothed over 6 months; exit curve = median of sales of fund-owned companies over a rolling 18 months (213 sales 2020 - H1 2026), gap computed on 709 LBOs; predominantly technology universe.

Sample15 French and European funds (buyout, mezzanine, growth, co-investments) tracked through their investor reports, 2014-2026; 82 exits, 408 annual observations, 84 acquirers; aggregated and anonymised data.

Limits7 to 41 observations depending on the table, consistent orders of magnitude; exit prices only cover holdings that were sold.

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